diff --git a/ODEsImmunity.R b/ODEsImmunity.R index 4ec90dc..27568d5 100644 --- a/ODEsImmunity.R +++ b/ODEsImmunity.R @@ -15,28 +15,31 @@ SEAI<-function(t,y,p){ AD = y[10] with(as.list(p),{ N = y[5]+y[6]+y[7]+y[8]+y[9]+y[10] + m = (PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N + I = 1-exp(-m) eps = (((PSD+PSU+((PRD+PRU)*(wr))))/(PSD+PSU+PRD+PRU)) dPSU.dt = -(b*(PSU/N)*ws*(NU+SU+AU)*(1/K)*(((PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N)-K)) - (b*(PSD/N)*ws*(NU+SU+AU)*(1/K)*(((PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N)-K)) - (muSU)*(PSU) dPSD.dt = -(b*(PSD/N)*ws*(ND+SD+AD)*(1/K)*(((PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N)-K)) - (b*(PSU/N)*ws*(ND+SD+AD)*(1/K)*(((PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N)-K)) - (muSD)*(PSD) dPRU.dt = -(b*(PRU/N)*wr*(NU+SU+AU)*(1/K)*(((PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N)-K)) - (b*(PRD/N)*(NU+SU+AU)*(1/K)*(((PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N)-K)) - (muRU)*(PRU) dPRD.dt = -(b*(PRD/N)*wr*(ND+SD+AD)*(1/K)*(((PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N)-K)) - (b*(PRU/N)*(ND+SD+AD)*(1/K)*(((PSU+PSD+PRU+PRD)/N)-K)) - (muRD)*(PRD) - dNU.dt = (del*N*(1-(N/L))) + (ND/Tau)-(b*eps*NU*(d+rho1))-(muNU*NU)# - (del*NU) - dND.dt = (b*eps*NU*d)-(ND/Tau)-(b*eps*ND*rho2)-(muND*ND)# - (del*ND) - dSU.dt = (b*eps*omega1*AU*SU)+(b*eps*NU*rho1)+(SD/Tau)-(b*eps*SU*(d+rho3))# - (del*SU) - dSD.dt = (b*eps*omega2*AD*SD)+(b*eps*ND*rho2)+(b*eps*SU*d)-(SD/Tau)-(b*eps*SD*rho4)# - (del*SD) - dAU.dt = (AD/Tau)+(b*eps*SU*rho3)-(b*eps*omega1*AU*SU)# - (del*AU) - dAD.dt = (b*eps*SD*rho4)-(b*eps*omega2*AD*SD)-(AD/Tau)# - (del*AD) + dNU.dt = (del*N)+ (ND/Tau)-(b*I*eps*NU*(d+rho1))-(muNU*NU) - (del*att*NU) + dND.dt = (b*I*eps*NU*d)-(ND/Tau)-(b*I*eps*ND*rho2)-(muND*ND) - (del*att*ND) + dSU.dt = (b*I*eps*NU*rho1)+(SD/Tau)-(b*I*eps*SU*(d+rho3)) - (del*att*SU) + dSD.dt = (b*I*eps*ND*rho2)+(b*I*eps*SU*d)-(SD/Tau)-(b*I*eps*SD*rho4) - (del*att*SD) + dAU.dt = (AD/Tau)+(b*I*eps*SU*rho3)-(b*I*eps*omega1*AU*d) - (del*att*AU) + dAD.dt = (b*I*eps*SD*rho4)+(b*I*eps*omega1*AU*d)-(AD/Tau) - (del*att*AD) return(list(c(dPSU.dt,dPSD.dt,dPRU.dt,dPRD.dt,dNU.dt,dND.dt,dSU.dt,dSD.dt,dAU.dt,dAD.dt))) }) } -b = 0.2239*365 +b = 20000 nstrains = 20 -del = (1/60) -muND = 0.05*20 -muNU = 0.1*20 +att = 0 +del = 0 +muND = 0 +muNU = 0 rho1 = 0.5 #prob of immunity gain from NU to SU rho2 = 0.5 #prob of immunity gain from ND to SD rho3 = 1/nstrains #prob of immunity gain from SU to AU @@ -45,32 +48,32 @@ omega1 = 1/100 #prob of appearance of new antigen omega2 = 1/100 #prob of appearance of new antigen only in resistant strains -L = 5000 +L = 10000 ws = 1 wr = 1-0.6 -muSU = 1 -#muSU=0.05 -muSD = 20 -#muSD=0.99 -muRD = 1 -#muRD = 0.05 -muRU = 1 -#muRU = 0.05 -Tau = 20/365 +#muSU = 1 +muSU=0.05 +#muSD = 20 +muSD=0.99 +#muRD = 1 +muRD = 0.05 +#muRU = 1 +muRU = 0.05 +Tau = 20#/365 d = 0.9 #m = 3 -K=6 -p2 = list(b=b,ws=ws,wr=wr,muSU=muSU,muSD=muSD,muRD=muRD,muRU=muRU,Tau=Tau,d=d,del=del,muND=muND,muNU=muNU,rho1=rho1,rho2=rho2,rho3=rho3,rho4=rho4,omega1=omega1,omega2=omega2,L=L) +K=10 +p2 = list(b=b,ws=ws,wr=wr,muSU=muSU,muSD=muSD,muRD=muRD,muRU=muRU,Tau=Tau,d=d,del=del,muND=muND,muNU=muNU,rho1=rho1,rho2=rho2,rho3=rho3,rho4=rho4,omega1=omega1,omega2=omega2,L=L,att=att) -t2 = seq(from=0,to=1000,by=1/365) +t2 = seq(from=0,to=5000,by=1) -N0 = c(500,500,500,500,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000) +N0 = c(500,500,500,500,333,333,333,333,333,333) out2 = ode(y=N0,times=t2,func=SEAI,parms=p2) -#plot(out2[,1],(out2[,2]+out2[,3]+out2[,4]+out2[,5])/6000) +#plot(out2[,1],(out2[,2]+out2[,3]+out2[,4]+out2[,5])) plot(out2[,1],(out2[,2]),type="l", xlab="Time", ylab="Population", main = "b=0.2239*365,d=0.30") lines(out2[,1],(out2[,3]),col="RED") @@ -80,35 +83,35 @@ plot(out2[,1],(out2[,4]),type="l", xlab = "Time", ylab="Population", main = "b=0 lines(out2[,1],(out2[,5]),col="RED") legend(x=40,y=6,legend=c("PRU","PRD"),bty="n",lwd = c(2,1),col=c("BLACK","RED")) -plot(out2[,1],(out2[,6]),type="l",ylim=c(0,max(out2[,6])), xlab="Time", ylab="Population", main = "b=0.2239*365,d=0.30") +plot(out2[,1],(out2[,6]),type="l", xlab="Time", ylab="Population", main = "b=0.2239*365,d=0.30") lines(out2[,1],(out2[,7]),col="RED") legend(x=40,y=1000,legend=c("NU","ND"),bty="n",lwd=c(2,1),col=c("BLACK","RED")) -plot(out2[,1],(out2[,8]),type="l",ylim=c(0,max(out2[,8])), xlab="Time", ylab="Population", main = "b=0.2239*365,d=0.30") +plot(out2[,1],(out2[,8]),type="l", xlab="Time",ylab="Population", main = "b=0.2239*365,d=0.30") lines(out2[,1],(out2[,9]),col="RED") legend(x=40,y=1000,legend=c("SU","SD"),bty="n",lwd=c(2,1),col=c("BLACK","RED")) -plot(out2[,1],out2[,10],type="l",ylim=c(0,max(out2[,10])),xlab="Time",ylab="Asymptomatic Population (A)", main="b=0.2239*365,d=0.30") +plot(out2[,1],out2[,10],type="l",xlab="Time",ylab="Asymptomatic Population (A)", main="b=0.2239*365,d=0.30") lines(out2[,1],out2[,11],col="RED") -out3eq = vector(mode = "numeric", length = 21) -out3eq2 = vector(mode = "numeric", length = 21) -bvalues = c(0,0.15,0.20,0.25,0.27,0.30,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.40,0.45,0.50,0.55,0.60,0.70,0.80,0.90,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) +out3eq = vector(mode = "numeric", length = 22) +out3eq2 = vector(mode = "numeric", length = 22) +bvalues = c(0,0.0001,0.0005,0.05,0.10,0.15,0.20,0.25,0.27,0.30,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.40,0.45,0.50,0.55,0.60,0.70,0.80,0.90,1) #bvalues = c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24) wrvalues = c(0,0.10,0.15,0.20,0.25,0.27,0.30,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.40,0.45,0.50,0.55,0.60,0.65,0.70,0.75,0.80,0.85,0.90) dvalues = c(0,0.10,0.15,0.20,0.25,0.27,0.30,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.40,0.45,0.50,0.55,0.60,0.65,0.70,0.75,0.80,0.85,0.90) -for (i in 1:21){ - #b=bvalues[i]*365 +for (i in 1:22){ + b=bvalues[i]*10 #wr=wrvalues[i] - d=dvalues[i] - p3 = list(b=b,ws=ws,wr=wr,muSU=muSU,muSD=muSD,muRD=muRD,muRU=muRU,Tau=Tau,d=d,del=del,muND=muND,muNU=muNU,rho1=rho1,rho2=rho2,rho3=rho3,rho4=rho4,omega1=omega1,omega2=omega2,L=L) + #d=dvalues[i] + p3 = list(b=b,ws=ws,wr=wr,muSU=muSU,muSD=muSD,muRD=muRD,muRU=muRU,Tau=Tau,d=d,del=del,muND=muND,muNU=muNU,rho1=rho1,rho2=rho2,rho3=rho3,rho4=rho4,omega1=omega1,omega2=omega2,L=L,att=att) out3 = ode(y=N0,times=t2,func=SEAI,parms=p3) #out3eq[i] = out3[3999,2] + out3[3999,3]+out3[3999,4] + out3[3999,5] - out3eq2[i] = (out3[30000,4]+out3[30000,5])/(out3[30000,2] + out3[30000,3] + out3[30000,4] + out3[30000,5]) + out3eq2[i] = (out3[3999,4]+out3[3999,5])/(out3[3999,2] + out3[3999,3] + out3[3999,4] + out3[3999,5]) } -plot(dvalues,out3eq2) +plot(bvalues,out3eq2,xlab="b/10") print(out3eq2)